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Rojoco Anderson
Joined: 15 Feb 2008 Posts: 481 Location: England, United Kingdom
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Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:05 pm |
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If we reject Tango's team I will be next in queue to lead and I'll likely select Nickyh and Ninjabear as well. Tango's reasoning behind selecting the last two players on the list seemed sound to me.
I'm still gonna vote REJECT though.
Takeoshi is right that the more we reject teams the more we'll be clued in on who people are selecting. |
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Jurgen Smith
Quizaboom Team Member
Joined: 19 Aug 2007 Posts: 547 Location: 19th Century Ganymede
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Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:10 pm |
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I don't think there's all that much information to be gleaned from the team selections. I can't see people doing much other than copying the logic here or taking a straight random punt, neither of which realistically gives us anything new to go on.
I'm happy to see what happens here, so I'll be voting to approve. |
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Ninjabear Simpson
Comic Team Member
Joined: 06 Apr 2008 Posts: 1388 Location: France
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Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:40 pm |
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I approve because I know I'm not a spy. I'm not sure I get the whole game, I may miss details and think the wrong way, but, well, let's see .
EDIT: Ok so I've read the rules again and I'm not sure, but, wouldn't it be clever to let the spies win one point? I mean the teams is made of 3 people, so the clue we'd get isn't bad . |
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Takeoshi Totoro
Warbears Mockup Master
Joined: 19 Jan 2008 Posts: 2172
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Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:22 am |
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Jurgen Smith wrote: |
I don't think there's all that much information to be gleaned from the team selections. I can't see people doing much other than copying the logic here or taking a straight random punt, neither of which realistically gives us anything new to go on.
I'm happy to see what happens here, so I'll be voting to approve. |
You learn about who people are willing to go on missions with. Spies cant communicate out of thread. Therefore spies want the minimum number of spies to go on the mission. Otherwise you end up with spies accidentally succeeding a mission because both spies were hoping the other would fail it or you have two fails in the mission, confirming two of the members as spies making it much harder for the spies to win.
On the other hand this game gon be slow af as a usually 30 second voting round has so far lasted two days, send in your votes dumdums. |
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Knyh Risotto
Bug Hunters Team Member
Joined: 05 Jan 2008 Posts: 2358 Location: BACKWARDS
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Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:24 pm |
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UPDATE
Votes:
Tango Totoro - approve
Rojoco Anderson - reject
Globox Simpson - approve
Takeoshi Thestreamer - reject
Marshall Branflakes - approve
Jurgen Smith - approve
Katz Giffuri - reject
Joyce Carpenter - reject
Nickyh Smith - approve
Ninjabear Simpson - approve
The team of Tango, Nickyh, and Ninjabear has been approved. The mission phase has now begun. The team members must all PM me to either "Succeed" or "Sabotage" the mission. All members of The People must vote succeed. The deadline for actions will be Tuesday 6th February 23:59 GMT.
Also, as I haven't made this explicitly clear yet, any (NOT ANT TANGO YOU SCRUB) phase can end as soon as all actions required are in. This means you can vote on the team as soon as it has been declared in thread and do not need to wait for me to update.
EDIT: i need to wear my glasses _________________
Last edited by deamon on Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:44 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Tango Totoro
Quizaboom Team Member
Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 1277
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Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:34 pm |
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What is this, a phase for ants!? _________________
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Marshall Brancacane
Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 105 Location: England
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Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:42 pm |
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Not just a phase for ants, but suceed ants?! The worst. |
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Knyh Risotto
Bug Hunters Team Member
Joined: 05 Jan 2008 Posts: 2358 Location: BACKWARDS
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:37 pm |
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The Mission team left the bar. They had received three sealed envelopes giving Knyh’s possible location. Probably from Knyh himself, the masochist. Each took one and followed its instructions without telling the others the details. One would search the old Quizaboom building, another the hills above BTC, and the third would scout the coast. Only they knew where they had gone. Only they could know if they were telling the truth about what they had found…
Meanwhile, Zane was captured by aliens for some reason, everyone blamed that pro streamer guy whatever his name was. Rojoco lost his face and gained a cleft chin. Everything else was normal.
The team returned less than a day later. Their faces told the whole story. Knyh was not found. The mission was sabotaged. One person had deliberately failed, and the other two had been unlucky. Knyh was now one step ahead of them. With their supplies running low, they only had a few chances to find him and take him out. This was a setback, but hopefully they could overcome it.
Next up as Mission Leader was Rojoco. Perhaps he could choose a reliable team. The People all voted to send four people this time, to better search for Knyh and his hideout.
MISSION ONE WAS SABOTAGED. ONE PERSON VOTED TO SABOTAGE, TWO VOTED TO SUCCEED.
Gamecard:
(Ruined Bar kindly donated by Rojoco, Avatars acquired by Marshall <3)
It is a new Team Selection Phase
Your mission leader is Rojoco Anderson. They must select FOUR people for this mission. The deadline for selection is Saturday 10th February, 23:59 GMT. _________________
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Marshall Brancacane
Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 105 Location: England
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:39 pm |
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Alright. Who did it? Own up! |
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Ninjabear Simpson
Comic Team Member
Joined: 06 Apr 2008 Posts: 1388 Location: France
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:41 pm |
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Nicky or Tango is a spy |
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Marshall Brancacane
Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 105 Location: England
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:44 pm |
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Nicky says: Ninja or Tango is a spy!
Tango says: Ninja or Nicky is a spy!
PLEASE, WE'VE HEARD THIS STORY BEFORE. |
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Takeoshi Totoro
Warbears Mockup Master
Joined: 19 Jan 2008 Posts: 2172
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:04 pm |
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I was hoping we would reject that mission and learn more before it went ahead, but i guess the spies pushed it through then...
OKay heres the problem. The only information we have is that one of Tango, Nickyh and Ninjabear are a spy and how people voted for the first mission. I cant say I've spotted any tells in posts that shout to me spy. The three on the mission will just accuse eachother and we dont really know anything.
The only other information we have to go on are statistics. If we pick one member of the first mission to go on this next mission we have a 2/3 chance of picking an innocent(again assuming only one spy, but it seems very unlikely to have more than one). ON the other hand if an innocent picks someone from the no mission pool there is only a 1/2 chance of picking an innocent.
Statistically our best choice for getting 4 innocents on the next mission is for someone who knows themself to be resistance to pick 1 person from the original mission and 2 people who havent yet been tested. There is the issue of trust however and we dont actually trust anyone to pick a mission.
So its either that or try and work something out from the first vote?? Again we could have more information if we had stalled the mission.... |
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Ninjabear Simpson
Comic Team Member
Joined: 06 Apr 2008 Posts: 1388 Location: France
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:33 pm |
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I think that if a spy is a team leader, they would choose only innocent people so that they are sure to have only one sabotage vote. Does this mean Tango is a spy? Well, I don't know. |
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Katz Giffuri
Joined: 03 Jul 2010 Posts: 176 Location: Behind U With A Knife. Cuttin U A Piece of Cake.
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Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:32 pm |
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Its just a ton of mind games and its really throwing me off so I have no clue what to do and who to trust |
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Tango Totoro
Quizaboom Team Member
Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 1277
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Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:58 am |
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Agh, I probably should've kept quiet about it being a good idea for spies to sabotage M1...
Even though I know I'm innocent (and certain that Ninjabear or Nickyh is a spy), I understand that people are justified to be more suspicious of me now. But it is far from certain that I am a spy, and here's why.
Objective Probabilities on what just happened.
My initial chance of being innocent = (6/10) = 60%
Assuming I'm innocent, my chance of picking 1 spy and 1 innocent for the team = 4/9*5/8 + 5/9*4/8 = 55.6%
Assuming I'm innocent, my chance of picking 2 spies for the team = 4/9*3/8 = 16.7%
Assuming I'm innocent, my chance of picking 2 innocents for the team (this did not happen) = 5/9*4/8 = 27.8%
Probability that I am innocent AND accidentally pick at least one spy = (6/10)*(4/9*5/8 + 5/9*4/8 + 4/9*3/8) = 43.3%
Probability that I am innocent AND pick two innocents (did not happen) = (6/10)*5/9*4/8 = 16.7%
Probability that I am a spy = 40%
Edit: fixed my numbers
Katz Giffuri wrote: |
Its just a ton of mind games and its really throwing me off so I have no clue what to do and who to trust |
I really couldn't agree more. It's hard for me to analyze anyone's behavior since I'm always second and triple guessing myself.
I think it's kinda weird that the mission team passed with 6 approvals (the minimum required) and happened to be sabotaged. Do I think all the spies voted to approve? No, that might be super obvious and a dumb move. I'm not sure how to proceed with this line of thought but I think it needed pointing out.
Personally, knowing what I know (that I'm innocent) I'm more inclined to trust Rojoco now. I trust him because he voted to reject my team (the correct move in hindsight) yet at the same time agreed with my choice of Nickyh and Ninjabear (who I know to be spies now). If he was a spy that would be really risky and weird behavior.
Takeoshi also seems kinda trustable given that he's actively making suggestions instead of doing nothing and allowing the spies to win. I was admittedly impatient during M1 and his idea to go through a few leaders was probably wise.
Takeoshi Totoro wrote: |
again assuming only one spy, but it seems very unlikely to have more than one |
Agreed. If it was two or three, it's nearly impossible for them to coordinate votes so that they're not all exposed, and the smart thing would be to pass the mission instead of take that risk.
Ninjabear Simpson wrote: |
I think that if a spy is a team leader, they would choose only innocent people so that they are sure to have only one sabotage vote. |
Can't say I disagree with you here, that would be a good move.
Ninjabear Simpson wrote: |
Does this mean Tango is a spy? Well, I don't know. |
The obvious alternative being that I am INNOCENT and accidentally picked a spy. _________________
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