Warbears: The Forum Game™ – GAME THREAD

Rojoco Anderson · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:05 pm

If we reject Tango's team I will be next in queue to lead and I'll likely select Nickyh and Ninjabear as well. Tango's reasoning behind selecting the last two players on the list seemed sound to me.

I'm still gonna vote REJECT though.
Takeoshi is right that the more we reject teams the more we'll be clued in on who people are selecting.

Jurgen Smith · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:10 pm

I don't think there's all that much information to be gleaned from the team selections. I can't see people doing much other than copying the logic here or taking a straight random punt, neither of which realistically gives us anything new to go on.

I'm happy to see what happens here, so I'll be voting to approve.

Ninjabear Simpson · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:40 pm

I approve because I know I'm not a spy. I'm not sure I get the whole game, I may miss details and think the wrong way, but, well, let's see Neutral

.

EDIT: Ok so I've read the rules again and I'm not sure, but, wouldn't it be clever to let the spies win one point? I mean the teams is made of 3 people, so the clue we'd get isn't bad Think

.

Takeoshi Totoro · Warbears Mockup Master Joined: 19 Jan 2008 Posts: 2172

Knyh Risotto · Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:24 pm

UPDATE
Votes:
Tango Totoro - approve
Rojoco Anderson - reject
Globox Simpson - approve
Takeoshi Thestreamer - reject
Marshall Branflakes - approve
Jurgen Smith - approve
Katz Giffuri - reject
Joyce Carpenter - reject
Nickyh Smith - approve
Ninjabear Simpson - approve

The team of Tango, Nickyh, and Ninjabear has been approved. The mission phase has now begun. The team members must all PM me to either "Succeed" or "Sabotage" the mission. All members of The People must vote succeed. The deadline for actions will be Tuesday 6th February 23:59 GMT.

Also, as I haven't made this explicitly clear yet, any (NOT ANT TANGO YOU SCRUB) phase can end as soon as all actions required are in. This means you can vote on the team as soon as it has been declared in thread and do not need to wait for me to update.

EDIT: i need to wear my glasses
_________________

Tango Totoro · Quizaboom Team Member Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 1277

What is this, a phase for ants!?
_________________

Marshall Brancacane · Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 105 Location: England

Not just a phase for ants, but suceed ants?! The worst.

Knyh Risotto · Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:37 pm

The Mission team left the bar. They had received three sealed envelopes giving Knyh’s possible location. Probably from Knyh himself, the masochist. Each took one and followed its instructions without telling the others the details. One would search the old Quizaboom building, another the hills above BTC, and the third would scout the coast. Only they knew where they had gone. Only they could know if they were telling the truth about what they had found…

Meanwhile, Zane was captured by aliens for some reason, everyone blamed that pro streamer guy whatever his name was. Rojoco lost his face and gained a cleft chin. Everything else was normal.

The team returned less than a day later. Their faces told the whole story. Knyh was not found. The mission was sabotaged. One person had deliberately failed, and the other two had been unlucky. Knyh was now one step ahead of them. With their supplies running low, they only had a few chances to find him and take him out. This was a setback, but hopefully they could overcome it.

Next up as Mission Leader was Rojoco. Perhaps he could choose a reliable team. The People all voted to send four people this time, to better search for Knyh and his hideout.

MISSION ONE WAS SABOTAGED. ONE PERSON VOTED TO SABOTAGE, TWO VOTED TO SUCCEED.

Gamecard:

(Ruined Bar kindly donated by Rojoco, Avatars acquired by Marshall <3)

It is a new Team Selection Phase
Your mission leader is Rojoco Anderson. They must select FOUR people for this mission. The deadline for selection is Saturday 10th February, 23:59 GMT.
_________________

Marshall Brancacane · Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 105 Location: England

Alright. Who did it? Own up!

Ninjabear Simpson · Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:41 pm

Nicky or Tango is a spy

Marshall Brancacane · Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 105 Location: England

Nicky says: Ninja or Tango is a spy!

Tango says: Ninja or Nicky is a spy!

PLEASE, WE'VE HEARD THIS STORY BEFORE.

Takeoshi Totoro · Warbears Mockup Master Joined: 19 Jan 2008 Posts: 2172

I was hoping we would reject that mission and learn more before it went ahead, but i guess the spies pushed it through then...

OKay heres the problem. The only information we have is that one of Tango, Nickyh and Ninjabear are a spy and how people voted for the first mission. I cant say I've spotted any tells in posts that shout to me spy. The three on the mission will just accuse eachother and we dont really know anything.

The only other information we have to go on are statistics. If we pick one member of the first mission to go on this next mission we have a 2/3 chance of picking an innocent(again assuming only one spy, but it seems very unlikely to have more than one). ON the other hand if an innocent picks someone from the no mission pool there is only a 1/2 chance of picking an innocent.

Statistically our best choice for getting 4 innocents on the next mission is for someone who knows themself to be resistance to pick 1 person from the original mission and 2 people who havent yet been tested. There is the issue of trust however and we dont actually trust anyone to pick a mission.

So its either that or try and work something out from the first vote?? Again we could have more information if we had stalled the mission....

Ninjabear Simpson · Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:33 pm

I think that if a spy is a team leader, they would choose only innocent people so that they are sure to have only one sabotage vote. Does this mean Tango is a spy? Well, I don't know.

Katz Giffuri · Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:32 pm

Its just a ton of mind games and its really throwing me off so I have no clue what to do and who to trust

Tango Totoro · Quizaboom Team Member Joined: 02 Jul 2008 Posts: 1277

Agh, I probably should've kept quiet about it being a good idea for spies to sabotage M1... Brick wall

Even though I know I'm innocent (and certain that Ninjabear or Nickyh is a spy), I understand that people are justified to be more suspicious of me now. But it is far from certain that I am a spy, and here's why.

Objective Probabilities on what just happened.

My initial chance of being innocent = (6/10) = 60%

Assuming I'm innocent, my chance of picking 1 spy and 1 innocent for the team = 4/9*5/8 + 5/9*4/8 = 55.6%
Assuming I'm innocent, my chance of picking 2 spies for the team = 4/9*3/8 = 16.7%
Assuming I'm innocent, my chance of picking 2 innocents for the team (this did not happen) = 5/9*4/8 = 27.8%

Probability that I am innocent AND accidentally pick at least one spy = (6/10)*(4/9*5/8 + 5/9*4/8 + 4/9*3/8) = 43.3%
Probability that I am innocent AND pick two innocents (did not happen) = (6/10)*5/9*4/8 = 16.7%
Probability that I am a spy = 40%

Edit: fixed my numbers