Warbears: The Forum Game™ – GAME THREAD

[Jurgen Smith]

Okay, so I've not really had time to think about this to revise the vote I was putting in earlier. Don't really trust any of the three on M1 based on thread behaviour - I glanced around and saw oddities in the posting for all three.

Will note that I'm not sure when the last game where I didn't suspect Tango of being evil was. Pretty sure it was before the BTC revival, if it ever happened.

[Knyh Risotto]

team got approved yo check it out

Votes:
Tango Totoro - reject
Rojoco Anderson - approve
Globox Simpson - approve
Takeoshi Thestreamer - approve
Marshall Branflakes - approve
Jurgen Smith - approve
Katz Giffuri - approve
Joyce Carpenter - approve
Nickyh Smith - approve
Ninjabear Simpson - approve

Take, Jurgen, Rojoco and Ninjabear now have until 23:59 23rd feb to do their mission thing
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[Tango Totoro]

So, just to state the obvious, all 4 spies voted to approve this team (3 out of 4 if you think I'm a spy).

We're pretty much screwed.
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[Rojoco Anderson]

So at the very least, 3 out of 4 spies approved this team; or all 4 spies if Tango is actually innocent... That worries me a bit.

EDIT: Yeah, what Tango said.

[Knyh Risotto]

Pro Streamer Boyoâ„¢ Takeoshi did the logics and picked a team. After the utter failure that was their first attempt, time was getting short to find Knyh and save BTC. Perhaps this had scared the citizens into finally accepting a team?

The four went out in each cardinal direction, ignoring the clues from the first time because they thought they were useless. They chose their directions randomly from a hat, and set off separately at different times. Only they knew where they had gone for sure. Only they could say they had actually searched instead of just finding a safe place to nap for a while and come back empty handed.

They returned the next day. Jurgen, sad and with nothing but a rock that looked a bit like a d20. Rojoco had found an old CD on the streets, and Ninjabear a sick but blunt ninja sword. Takeoshi had nothing but dust. Knyh was not found. The mission was sabotaged.

MISSION TWO WAS SABOTAGED. ONE PERSON VOTED TO SABOTAGE, THREE VOTED TO SUCCEED. The Rejection Counter has reset to ZERO.

Gamecard:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/kqOaaTJ.png[/img]
(Ruined Bar kindly donated by Rojoco, Avatars acquired by Marshall <3)

It is a new Team Selection Phase
Your mission leader is Mashall Pablobella Brancacane. They must select FOUR people for this mission. The deadline for selection is Tuesday 27th February, 23:59 GMT.


SUPER ULTRA MEGA WARNING; SPIES WIN WITH NEXT MISSION FAIL
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[Globox Simpson]

The obvious suspect here would be Ninjabear, but that would be way too simple, not to mention I don't think the prime suspect would be so BOLD AND FOOLISH. I'm getting a hunch Ninjabear might be innocent, framed by the real spy/spies.

[Rojoco Anderson]

We should have gone with my team. The mass rejection of my choices showed that at least 2 out of 4 spies (likely more) didn't want the team to pass. I think the saboteur here was probably Ninjabear or Jurgen so I will be voting against allowing them on any future teams.

[Tango Totoro]

[Nickyh Smith]

I have zero doubt ninja is the spy on both missions, which means Tango and I are innocent. I'm fine if people don't choose me though, at least choose Tango. He must be innocent.

Does this mean the remaining people on mission 2's team aren't spies as well? The spies probably wouldn't vote so unanimously otherwise.
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[Takeoshi Totoro]

Okay tbh im having a hard time reading this game at this point.

To me these are the 3 most likely options so far.

First option. 1 spy in M1. Same spy on M2(Ninjabear).
This means 3 of the unused who have not been on a mission are spies. This option can be seen as quite likely as this was the first mission 2 with ninjabear selected and at least 3/4 spies voted for it.

Second option. 1 spy in M1. Different spy in M2.
Meaning 2 of the unused are spies. Possibly more likely.

Third option. 1 spy in M1. Same spy in M2 + at least one extra spy.
If Ninjabear failed mission 1 and then got chosen to go on a mission with at least one other spy we can assume that other spy would know to succeed the mission and let Ninja take the fall. This would mean 2 or fewer of the unused are spies.

Fourth option. All options are wrong could be 2 spies in M1 and 3 in M2 for all I know.

In the case of option 1.
Our best course of action is to make a mission from people who have already been on missions for number 3. However if Ninja isnt a spy or if another spy got into missions 1 and 2 staying incognito this mission fails. This is way too high risk for me.

In the case of option 2.
We want one person from M1(Nickyh is best candidate at this point), and then for the final 3 we want 2 from mission 2(1/3 spies -> 1/2 spies) and one from the unused pool(2/4 spies). Again this assumes that there is only one spy on each mission and relies on a lot of chance. This game seems very easy to lie in as there is no way of checking therefore it's hard to find more reason to bring people on missions than chance and gut feeling.

In the case of option 3.
This leaves us in a very hard position however if we assume Ninjabear is the spy from mission 1 we have 2 candidates already in Nickyh and Tango(although this mission doesnt sit right with me personally). We then take one candidate from mission 2(1/3 are spies) and then either a second from mission 2(1/2 are spies) or one from the unused pool(2/4 are spies). The main con is we have to trust Tango, which from what I've read goes against gut feeling of most players. The main pro is that this is slightly less random maybe who knows.

In the case of option 4 where previous 3 options are wrong we just pick on gut feeling and hope for the best. Maybe even just use a randomiser who knows.

Sorry bit of a ramble and im not sure if the logic always flows. Basically there are a ton of different possibilities.

TL;DR - At the very least we probably shouldnt take Ninjabear on the next mission. The best chance of success depends on how many spies you believe there are in each mission. Most likely we need to mix and match from the three possible pools(M1, M2, unused) as it is likely that each contains at least one spy.

[Takeoshi Totoro]

Oh one more thing. Our final mission choice is down to Nickyh. Which is good because they are probably the most likely innocent. Therefore we arent in any real hurry to pick a mission and can throw around a few compositions and see if the spies try and jump the gun.

[Ninjabear Simpson]

People, I'm sorry to sound like a spy so much, I honeslty don't know why I'm so strongly suspected. I amdit this game is new to me and I played it weirdly and I kinda followed my instinct all the way. We're probably gonna lose and it'll be my fault. Sorry.

Now, if somehow you realise I'm no spy, here's what I think. I'm like 90% sure Tango is a spy. Nickyh sounds just like me when he's talking about mission 1. In addition to that, Tango's targetting me real hard, and all the things he's been saying sound liek a spy. Now about this mission, I really don't know who the spy could be. Jurgen seems to be against Tango so I tursted him but he may just be playing really well. About Rojoco I'm not sure at all, I have no idea. The only ones I kinda trust are Takeoshi and Nickyh. Joyce has acted just like Tango towards me, so I suspect her aswell.

If everyone keeps focusing on me, we'll lose. Again it's my fault, but I believe we still have a chance.

[Rojoco Anderson]

I don't trust a word Ninjabear is saying. He's talking a lot like he did when he was The Don in Mafia.

[Ninjabear Simpson]

This was the worst game ever and I'm never playing like that again. Listen, I think I'll just stop posting, I've screwed the game, anyway.

[Nickyh Smith]