Warbears: The Forum Game™ – GAME THREAD

[Rojoco Anderson]

For my pick I'm going to avoid everyone who approved the last team and simply select the four players (including me) who chose to reject it, the logic being that spies are more likely to have approved that mission knowing they had infiltrated it.

Rojoco
Takeoshi
Katz
Joyce

[Knyh Risotto]

Rojoco has selected their team. It is now up to ALL OF YOU, including the mission leader to vote on this. You can either "Approve" or "Reject" the team by PMing me. You may freely discuss voting in the thread, however please remember to PM me your final decision. Do not discuss this off the thread, and be mindful that failure to vote will lead to your vote being counted as a "Reject", and may lead to you being replaced in the game.


The deadline for votes will be Friday 9th February 23:59 GMT.
_________________

[Takeoshi Totoro]

Guys I know im on this mission but can we please vote no on this one, we need more information on who is picked by who before we can continue. If this mission fails we need something more than statistics to go on.

[Nickyh Smith]

Nickyh came back from his scouting trip, exhausted but cheerful. The smile on his face stood in direct contrast to everyone else's mood.

"Guys, you won't believe this! I found a six-pack over at-" his voice trailed off when he noticed the dejected look on everyone's face.

"Oh, right, Knyh... I suppose nobody else found him either? Darn..."

Nickyh tried to find a seat, but much like the beer in the fridge, there weren't any. He sat on the ground instead.

~~~

Ah, dammit. Should have seen that coming.

I'm with Takeoshi on this next vote. As sound as the choices are (spies who know a spy was on the team would want to approve then sabotage the mission, so those that rejected are most likely innocent), we need more time to discuss and go through approve/reject votes people make.
_________________

[Globox Simpson]

There's not a lot of information for me to go on right now, so I'm not entirely sure of how to vote.

However, in one way, having a team composed of people who weren't on the previous mission is a good idea, given that it might help us find more "prime suspects".

[Rojoco Anderson]

[Tango Totoro]

Mission 2 is probably going to fail. I calculated some probabilities, and the odds seem to be against us.

If leader is innocent and choosing randomly (6/10 chance):
INNOCENT/INNOCENT/INNOCENT = 5/9*4/8*3/7 = 11.9% DEFINITE SUCCESS
INNOCENT/INNOCENT/SPY = 5/9*4/8*4/7 + 5/9*4/8*4/7 + 4/9*5/8*4/7 = 47.6% ASSUME SABOTAGE
INNOCENT/SPY/SPY = 5/9*4/8*3/7 + 4/9*5/8*3/7 + 4/9*3/8*5/7 = 35.7% ASSUME HALF-HALF CHANCE SUCCESS/SABOTAGE
SPY/SPY/SPY = 4/9*3/8*2/7 = 4.8% ASSUME SUCCESS

If leader is spy and therefore has full info (4/10 chance)
100% ASSUME SABOTAGE

With those assumptions, here's the odds I think we have for Mission 2 (4 person team):

79.3% chance of Sabotage
20.7% chance of Success

My gut tells me Rojoco is trustable, and maybe he's less likely to pick a spy given his justification, but I still think the odds are incredibly high that M2 fails.

Given that M2 will likely fail, should we learn as much as possible by going through a few leaders first? I'm still undecided.
_________________

[Nickyh Smith]

Since those who rejected the last mission are much more trustworthy, I say we wait until Takeoshi on mission 2 round 3 and approve his team (if it looks reasonable etc). In the meantime, the votes may give us more information on everyone.

EDIT: yeah Rojoco, I voted approve quite early, then realised voting reject would have been better.
_________________

[Katz Giffuri]

So many numbers I'm so confused what to do AHH

[Jurgen Smith]

I mean, the statistics are always against success for random chance - that's the whole point of a game built around deduction. Given I'm sure Tango is aware of this, I'm fairly sure his numbers for random chance are more there for show and to confuse more than to try and inform. Especially now I go back over the previous page, I don't think the "objective" analysis of the numbers really holds up as well as a defence to me.

I need to reread more of the thread to check over reasoning and such beforehand, but I'm not (completely) convinced by the argument that spies would never vote to reject a team they've infiltrated. It's a point in their favour for trust, certainly, but I don't think it stands up alone.

[E]: on rereading the thread, I'm inclined to slightly trust Rojoco and Takeoshi on reasoning grounds so far, but nothing from the other two (of any significance, at least) is dubious. My vote is to reject.

[Tango Totoro]

[Jurgen Smith]

My point is that I think the numbers aren't actually all that relevant, and especially including the probabilities for options we know aren't actually possible any more is fairly disingenuous as a use of statistics.

Specifically taking your first post, the bolded section you chose to highlight:

[Tango Totoro]

Reflecting on what you wrote, I will concede that writing "40% chance of spy" is misleading. I was trying to show what the expected outcomes would be before the mission occurs, but your way makes more sense given that option 2 is eliminated.

Also, I don't think I even remember what conditional probability is...

So yes, a roughly 50/50 chance I am spy then, I am okay with that. I only typed it up to defend myself from people who might be convinced I am guilty.

[Knyh Risotto]

With Rojoco as their Leader, The People again took to a vote. The team proposed included all four who had rejected the last mission team, supposedly because they were less likely to be spies. Regardless, arguments raged quietly. Whoever was picked didn’t matter to some, they should simply reject the team and move to a new leader to gauge responses. That seemed smart but couldn’t happen forever. Eventually they had to act, or they would lose. Math corner raged about probabilities, looking at statistics worthy of a degree in “Who Actually Enjoys This Kind of Maths?!�. It settled nothing.

When the vote came, the outcome was clear. The team was rejected 8:2, and the mission leader title passed on…

THE REJECTION COUNTER HAS INCREASED TO ONE

Votes:
Tango Totoro - reject
Rojoco Anderson - reject
Globox Simpson - reject
Takeoshi Thestreamer - reject
Marshall Branflakes - approve
Jurgen Smith - reject
Katz Giffuri - reject
Joyce Carpenter - approve
Nickyh Smith - reject
Ninjabear Simpson - reject


Gamecard:

(Ruined Bar kindly donated by Rojoco, Avatars acquired by Marshall <3)

Your mission leader is Globox Simpson. They must select FOUR people for this mission. The deadline for selection is Wednesday 14th February, 23:59 GMT.
_________________

[Jurgen Smith]

Marshall, Joyce: what's the reasoning? Hard to get anything from you if you're not actually speaking on the thread.