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Tango Totoro
Quizaboom
Team Member
Joined: 02 Jul 2008
Posts: 1277
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 Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:31 pm |
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| Takeoshi Totoro wrote: |
| Not sure about this logic. It firstly relies on a 1/5 chance of the second person being mafia which isnt insignificant but also is still unlikely. Secondly, surely the strength of mafia/townie monk would be the ability to affect their lynch decisions? I guess it depends on whether the other player felt knyh was onto them? |
I hadn't considered that, and so my assumption is faulty. There's also the slim possibility of there having been 3 Monks (Knyh + both Mafia). Right? I still think it's likely, though not certain, that Mafia targeted Knyh. They just happen to kill a Townie to dissolve a society on the first night? Seems WAY too lucky.
And I'm also not sure how mafia/townie monk chat would have affected lynch decisions in practice. If someone could elaborate?
Jurgen is arguing that the secret societies are of net benefit to the town, while you seem to be saying the opposite. I still think that keeping them secret hurts the town (but revealing the names would ruin the fun according to Ninja.) What do people think?
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Takeoshi Totoro
Warbears Mockup Master
Joined: 19 Jan 2008
Posts: 2172
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:19 pm |
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| Tango Totoro wrote: |
| Takeoshi Totoro wrote: |
| Not sure about this logic. It firstly relies on a 1/5 chance of the second person being mafia which isnt insignificant but also is still unlikely. Secondly, surely the strength of mafia/townie monk would be the ability to affect their lynch decisions? I guess it depends on whether the other player felt knyh was onto them? |
I hadn't considered that, and so my assumption is faulty. There's also the slim possibility of there having been 3 Monks (Knyh + both Mafia). Right? I still think it's likely, though not certain, that Mafia targeted Knyh. They just happen to kill a Townie to dissolve a society on the first night? Seems WAY too lucky.
And I'm also not sure how mafia/townie monk chat would have affected lynch decisions in practice. If someone could elaborate?
Jurgen is arguing that the secret societies are of net benefit to the town, while you seem to be saying the opposite. I still think that keeping them secret hurts the town (but revealing the names would ruin the fun according to Ninja.) What do people think? |
Its a 4/5 chance of being town town so basically it helps with sharing info without being too public but theres a small chance of your partner being a baddie to try and balance it. Secret societies are a net benefit to town unless the unlikely event where there are mafia/werewolf involved.
Also with the monks are dissolved message im pretty sure there were only two monks and therefore only two masons as well.
If masons want to reveal names thats fine but at the same time they may gain more by plotting in the background and not making themselves a target. |
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Crazyone Totoro
Joined: 10 Nov 2007
Posts: 850
Location: Warbears, UK :3
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:30 pm |
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| Tango Totoro wrote: |
| We still haven't seen a substantive post from Crazyone, which suggests she might be anti-Town. To be fair, she was actively guiding discussion in the last game and turned out to be Mafia, so it's not strong evidence. She might be really busy or just too bored to post, but it seems a bit out of place. |
Yeaaaaah, sorry, I've slept 20 hours in five days so IRL was getting in the way  I'm aware it seems out of place. I'll be more active now that I've actually slept.
Reading over everything so far... Gotta say, I agree with Take on this one. Sure, he could be starting a bandwagon, but he might not be either. We have zero way of knowing at this stage. Globox was over-justifying himself.
Globox
EDIT: Just saw Take's latest post. I think Masons should stay silent so they can speak up like "uhhh" if anyone tries to claim them. |
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Tango Totoro
Quizaboom
Team Member
Joined: 02 Jul 2008
Posts: 1277
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:00 pm |
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I think it's a mistake to assume there's only a 1 in 5 chance that the host has poisoned each secret society with scum. This assumes a randomized setup from the host. I believe there's a very strong chance, >90%, that at least one of the societies was poisoned, given the descriptions in the signup thread. Chekhov's gun.
I still think Masons should reveal themselves. It would give the town a lead if the society gets dissolved. Also if the Werewolves get eliminated, we can credibly eliminate the Mason Townie(s) from our list of suspected Mafia.
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Ninjabear Simpson
Comic Team Member
Joined: 06 Apr 2008
Posts: 1388
Location: France
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:09 pm |
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| The setup was made randomly. I just made sure the rules about the secret societies compositions were respected. |
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Miniman Mazinga
Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:41 pm |
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| Rojoco Anderson wrote: |
| Miniman Mazinga wrote: |
| Ahhh, I was about to make a post about how Rojoco's high interest in this very, uh, tame version of mafia is super suspicious to me. And I have nothing else at all in the world to base my lynch off of so I'm voting Rojoco |
Nice. Killing off active players is a good move (if you're a baddie). |
I mean. Killing off a baddie, active player or no, IS a good move. I don't get this defence.
I can see people's suspicions on Globox too, however since Rojoco voted for Globox, I'm pretty sure they're on opposite sides, so could still be werewolf and mafia. My lynch vote remains the same. |
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Rojoco Anderson
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 481
Location: England, United Kingdom
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:38 am |
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| I'm voting for Miniman instead. |
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Rojoco Anderson
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 481
Location: England, United Kingdom
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:43 pm |
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| Gotta say, the fact Globox hasn't said a word to defend himself is beginning to worry me a little. Right now it just looks like he isn't bothered about playing, which makes me think he might be innocent. I feel like a mafia/werewolf player would probably be a little more active in trying not to lose. :/ |
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Marshall Brancacane
Joined: 22 Jul 2010
Posts: 105
Location: England
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:00 pm |
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| Tango Totoro wrote: |
The people who haven't voted so far (Marshall, Pepper, Globox, Crazyone, Globus) have typically been more quiet in past games, with the exceptions of Marshall and Crazyone. We still haven't seen a substantive post from Crazyone, which suggests she might be anti-Town. To be fair, she was actively guiding discussion in the last game and turned out to be Mafia, so it's not strong evidence. She might be really busy or just too bored to post, but it seems a bit out of place.
I am even more suspicious of Marshall for not posting anything substantive up until now. If I had to rank people I suspect right now, he would be at the top. |
You're right, I do usually jump out at this to say, but only when I feel like I have something to contribute. Of which... not really. I apologise for not speaking up sooner, though, I've just been quite overwhelmed recently with work and college, plus trips and being sick, I haven't been in my best state of mind to provide much to the thread.
Even now, I'm a little stumped on things to say. Factually, anyone could be anyone, but of course you know that. I have a poor memory so forgive me if I missed something or am entirely wrong, but, the way I see it is that we can only judge people based on their behaviour. I'm unsure if we can really get information from the secret societies, especially since only one remains now. I'm not really going to say anything about them because I don't fully understand the societies or their purpose, only that they are secret, so I'll butt out of that until I understand it better. If I understand it better.
However, as I usually do, I'll just analyse people since it can provide others with my point of view for their evaluation.
We'll start with Takeoshi. Not much to say here, really. Takeoshi is being Takeoshi. Nothing new. Nothing different. He's been good the past two games at least, so his turn to evil isn't really anymore likely that is isn't. In conclusion, I don't think he's suspicious.
Tango, now. Other than him being a little more into this game, I don't think there's anything different and his actions and behaviour just seem pretty normal. Nothing here.
Rojoco. After Jurgen's first analysis of him, that his first post was odd, it's not as bad as it seems? I mean, usually peoples first posts on the first day are jokey and nonsense. However, I do see what Miniman is trying to say about Rojoco. He usually is quite 'whatever' about situations, but, I don't know, I'm unsure if anything is here. Rojoco might just want to play this time.
Jurgen. He hasn't contributed much in the way of post count, but quality is full. I've nothing really to say about him, uh -
Zane's reaction and backing down as opposed to what Takeoshi said seems a bit weak of a response, and not much standing up for her defense. The only proper contribution I can give.
Miniman is don't know. Could go either way, same as everyone else.
I'm going to stop right about now, because what I'm saying, I'm viewing as nonsense, if it makes sense. I've nothing to contribute, I don't know who to suspect. The Globox incident is really strange, I think people are going after him a bit viciously because there's nothing else strange going around. But, yeah, it's not good that he hasn't defended himself, and as it is, there's no better evidence uncovered as of yet. Globox.
Edit (before posting, but, just finished writing so whatever):
| Rojoco Anderson wrote: |
| Gotta say, the fact Globox hasn't said a word to defend himself is beginning to worry me a little. Right now it just looks like he isn't bothered about playing, which makes me think he might be innocent. I feel like a mafia/werewolf player would probably be a little more active in trying not to lose. :/ |
I do agree with this, honestly. It still happens, though, maybe he's just a little busy? I'm not changing my vote, at least not yet. I don't have any better candidate and although I somewhat suspect Zane, I'm not willing to act on that without some input from you guys. |
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Pepper Brancacane
Joined: 27 Nov 2007
Posts: 960
Location: back seat
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:10 pm |
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| Globox |
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Globus Simpson
Joined: 22 Jul 2010
Posts: 53
Location: alabama
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:56 pm |
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globox
because he hasn't been involved
however i also haven't |
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Rojoco Anderson
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 481
Location: England, United Kingdom
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:30 pm |
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| Pepper Brancacane wrote: |
| Globox |
| Globus Simpson wrote: |
| globox |
I wouldn't be surprised if either of these two are baddies this game. Globus had been saying on discord that he's actually gonna try playing this time, but now he's sneaking in his vote at the end of the phase and not saying anything. He and/or Pepper might be thinking they can get away with doing this because it's keeping in theme with their previous game behaviour. Either that or they really are just being lazy, boring players. Something to consider.
Edit: Globus added his two lines just as I was posting. |
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Globus Simpson
Joined: 22 Jul 2010
Posts: 53
Location: alabama
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:50 pm |
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what's said on discord shouldn't be counted especially considering I said that, then I said "This game is mostly just random it's very different from the other mafias"
Also I have been no lifeing Rainbow Six Siege |
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Ninjabear Simpson
Comic Team Member
Joined: 06 Apr 2008
Posts: 1388
Location: France
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:10 pm |
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| End of the votes. Update coming soon. |
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Tango Totoro
Quizaboom
Team Member
Joined: 02 Jul 2008
Posts: 1277
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:58 pm |
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| Globus Simpson wrote: |
| what's said on discord shouldn't be counted especially considering I said that, then I said "This game is mostly just random it's very different from the other mafias" |
A honest polite request to you and everyone: can we please stop the discussion & meta-discussion of this game on discord? If you have a comment save it until the end or ask the host privately if it's urgent. EVERYTHING that is said is taken into account by anyone who sees it. The game is ruined when public comments are not kept to this thread.
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